Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B3 0xb3c1…1ef7 sports 8 markets active 3d ago coverage 733d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$90,391 (+175%) realized +$90,391 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +80% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +48% what you keep after slip
Net edge+48%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$6,468per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$344est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$11,141
14 days+$11,141
30 days+$11,022
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$67,598
sports 35% +$23,208
crypto 6% −$119
economics 1% −$584
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+63.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +383.3% +337.2% 100% 100% +337.2%
≤30d 2 +189.7% +162.1% 50% 50% +158.6%
≤90d 4 +179.7% +153.1% 50% 50% +90.8%
all 8 +80.4% +63.2% 38% 38% +148.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +63.2% 38% +148.5%
10% ← realistic here +47.6% 38% +124.7%
15% +33.3% 38% +103.0%
20% +20.2% 38% +83.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +111% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +80% · $-wt +175% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33,568 vs −$2,120 · ×15.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.5 per $1 lost it wins $9.5
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

733d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$90,391
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$344
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage733d
Avg bet$6,468
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2,907 +$11,141 +383%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $3,026 −$119 -4%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $4,996 +$21,964 +440%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 10 $10,045 −$9,897 -98%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $30,188 +$67,598 +224%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2024 meeting? Dec 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2024 meeting? Dec 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2024 meeting? Dec 20 $489 −$489 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $14,048 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $16 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $2,891 4d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2,907 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $21 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2,143 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $545 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $104 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $104 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $104 16d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 100¢ $26,960 38d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 18¢ $28 41d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 18¢ $4,968 41d
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car BUY Jirí Procházka 51¢ $5,045 68d
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car BUY Jirí Procházka 51¢ $5,000 68d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 30¢ $8,996 111d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,000 111d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 32¢ $1,072 111d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 31¢ $1,000 111d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 31¢ $1,000 111d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 31¢ $5,000 111d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 31¢ $1,000 111d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 31¢ $1,000 111d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 111d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 111d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 31¢ $100 111d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 31¢ $10,000 111d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2024 meeting? BUY Yes $45 734d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2024 meeting? BUY Yes $95 736d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records