Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:57:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3bd…6988 crypto 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$127 (-35%) realized −$278 · open +$151
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$328now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$81
crypto 29% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-68.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -64.8% -68.2% 25% 25% -68.0%
≤30d 12 -64.8% -68.2% 25% 25% -68.0%
≤90d 12 -64.8% -68.2% 25% 25% -68.0%
all 12 -64.8% -68.2% 25% 25% -68.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.2% 25% -68.0%
10% -71.2% 25% -71.0%
15% -74.0% 25% -73.8%
20% -76.5% 0% -76.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$14 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$328
Realized−$278
Unrealized+$151
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 40¢ $97 $327 +$230 (+237%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$12 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$10 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $100 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 9h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $82 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $38 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 32h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $17 32h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $19 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $327.59 · official $327.59 (match) · 25 history records