Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:44:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

B3 0xb3bc…ce66 other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized −$38 · open +$43

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip

Net edge-43%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown16%max

Avg bet$162per market

Trades / day12.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit14%portable

Net worth$541now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-38.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-31.6%	-38.1%	50%	50%	+22.7%
≤30d	4	-31.6%	-38.1%	50%	50%	+22.7%
≤90d	4	-31.6%	-38.1%	50%	50%	+22.7%
all	4	-31.6%	-38.1%	50%	50%	+22.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-38.1%	50%	+22.7%
10%	-44.0%	25%	+11.0%
15%	-49.4%	25%	+0.2%
20%	-54.4%	25%	-9.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 85% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +34% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -32% · $-wt +34% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$101 vs −$18 · ×5.54 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.54 per $1 lost it wins $5.54

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$541

Realized−$38

Unrealized+$43

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)4 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$162

Trades / day12.0

Drawdown16%

Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics	Pittsburgh Pirates	82¢	100¢	$200	$243	+$43 (+21%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	85¢	86¢	$200	$201	+$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$98	$97	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$329	+$171	+52%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$140	−$11	-8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$137	+$30	+22%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$27	−$26	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$99	11m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics	BUY Pittsburgh Pirates	82¢	$201	12m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	85¢	$201	14m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$500	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	65¢	$206	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	65¢	$123	4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	12¢	$122	4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$140	4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$140	4h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	3¢	$27	5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	89¢	$27	5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	80¢	$137	7h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $541.13 · official $514.30 · 12 history records