Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:09:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3bc…46f8 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$331 (-35%) realized −$329 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$275
7 days−$508
14 days−$422
30 days−$422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$213
sports 22% −$209
crypto 19% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-52.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 9 -47.8% -52.8% 22% 22% -59.4%
≤90d 9 -47.8% -52.8% 22% 22% -59.4%
all 9 -47.8% -52.8% 22% 22% -59.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.8% 22% -59.4%
10% -57.3% 22% -63.3%
15% -61.4% 22% -66.9%
20% -65.2% 22% -70.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$88 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized−$329
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage8d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $174 $172 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $110 −$108 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $79 −$77 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $92 −$90 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $43 −$42 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $97 −$94 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $98 −$97 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $104 −$104 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$84 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $176 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $110 18h
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 27h
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 28h
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 28h
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 7¢ $76 28h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $92 39h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 7¢ $43 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $97 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $98 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $104 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $208 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $135 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.50 · official $172.50 (match) · 15 history records