Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:05:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3ba…f84e sports 601 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,440 (+0%) realized +$1,440 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%589W / 9L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$907per market
Trades / day41.1pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$535now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$140
7 days+$472
14 days+$895
30 days+$1,434
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$1,387
other 10% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 347 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 598 -0.7% -10.2% 98% 0% -9.3%
all 598 -0.7% -10.2% 98% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here -26.6% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×33.57 per $1 lost it wins $33.57
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$535
Realized+$1,440
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses589 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions3
Markets (closed)598 / 601
History coverage55d
Avg bet$907
Trades / day41.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 598 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Seattle Mariners 100¢ 100¢ $500 $500 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Baltimore Orioles 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Tampa Bay Rays 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $1,604 +$2 +0%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5) Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $499 +$1 +0%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2,498 +$2 +0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $500 $0 +0%
Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5) Jun 16 $80 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,005 +$1 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,321 +$1 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,005 +$1 +0%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $9,900 +$100 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,002 +$1 +0%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8,767 +$9 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $999 +$1 +0%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $495 +$5 +1%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 14 $500 $0 +0%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $499 +$1 +0%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $499 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,163 +$1 +0%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $873 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,998 +$2 +0%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $5,994 +$6 +0%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $4,995 +$5 +0%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $1,361 +$1 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3,996 +$4 +0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $500 $0 +0%
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Jun 14 $198 +$2 +1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $500 $0 +0%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5) Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Jun 14 $60 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $499 +$1 +0%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $500 $0 +0%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 13 $2,116 +$2 +0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $22 1m
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 100¢ $500 4m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 100¢ $14 5m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 100¢ $7 47m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 100¢ $1 48m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 100¢ $26 50m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 100¢ $102 53m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 100¢ $705 54m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 100¢ $30 54m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 100¢ $26 54m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 100¢ $31 54m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 100¢ $675 54m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1 1h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 100¢ $28 1h
Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 100¢ $28 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 100¢ $28 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 100¢ $6 1h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 100¢ $50 1h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 100¢ $50 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 100¢ $499 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 100¢ $2,498 4h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 100¢ $2,498 4h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 100¢ $2,498 4h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 100¢ $2,498 4h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 100¢ $2,498 6h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 100¢ $2,498 6h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 100¢ $2,498 6h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 100¢ $2,498 6h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,498 24h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 100¢ $500 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $535.42 · official $535.42 (match) · 2882 history records