Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:38:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B3
0xb3b8…e583
crypto · 74 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$104
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses28 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)62 / 74
History coverage3d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day61.9
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 12 History 62 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+19%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Yes 56¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Yes 88¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Yes 38¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Yes 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -46%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 11 $1 $0 -27%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 11 $7 −$6 -84%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $3 +$3 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% +$1
crypto 26% −$4
weather 15% −$10
sports 13% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1 3m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1 12m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1 13m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 36m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 53¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? SELL No 92¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? SELL Yes 87¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +0.1% -9.5% 45% 40% -8.4%
≤30d 62 +0.1% -9.5% 45% 40% -8.4%
≤90d 62 +0.1% -9.5% 45% 40% -8.4%
all 62 +0.1% -9.5% 45% 40% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover61.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 40% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 34% -17.2%
15% -26.0% 31% -25.2%
20% -33.3% 26% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.04 · official $104.08 (match) · 215 history records