Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B3 0xb3b6…0d2b weather 615 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d only
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,217 (+1%) realized +$1,215 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate93%567W / 44L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day98.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$590now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$552
14 days−$27
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 88% −$137
crypto 8% +$202
tech 3% +$47
other 1% +$76
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -7.6% -16.4% 85% 1% -14.4%
≤30d 507 +0.5% -9.1% 92% 2% -9.6%
≤90d 611 +0.8% -8.8% 93% 1% -9.4%
all 611 +0.8% -8.8% 93% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 1% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 1% -18.1%
15% -25.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$63 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$590
Realized+$1,215
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses567 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)611 / 615
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$203
Trades / day98.2
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 611 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? No 98¢ 97¢ $300 $295 −$5 (-2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 17? No 95¢ 100¢ $143 $150 +$7 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 17? No 94¢ 95¢ $141 $142 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 17? No 95¢ 98¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $129 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $70 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $40 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $142 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $141 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 16 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on June Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $36 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $27 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $150 +$8 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 16 $142 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $143 −$143 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 15 $64 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $141 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $141 +$9 +6%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $219 +$7 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $980 +$19 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $83 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $142 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 63°F or below on June Jun 15 $74 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $140 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 14 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $138 +$12 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June Jun 14 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $85 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 13 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $9 $0 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $143 −$143 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $141 −$141 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $68 +$4 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $4 10m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $300 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 94¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 94¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 94¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 94¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 94¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 94¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 94¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $102 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $76 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $42 7h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $150 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $58 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $7 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $150 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $126 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $23 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $129 11h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June SELL No 100¢ $150 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $7 12h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on June SELL No 100¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $143 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $590.10 · official $590.70 (match) · 3500 history records