Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:27:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B3 0xb3b6…9aa1 other 93 markets active 6d ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+5%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate30%28W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$9
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% $0
sports 37% +$5
crypto 13% −$4
world 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +98.7% +79.8% 25% 25% +82.0%
≤30d 54 -3.6% -12.8% 24% 22% -13.7%
≤90d 93 +1.1% -8.6% 30% 25% -6.7%
all 93 +1.1% -8.6% 30% 25% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 25% -6.7%
10% -17.3% 14% -15.6%
15% -25.3% 13% -23.8%
20% -32.6% 13% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses28 / 65
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)93 / 93
History coverage33d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 93 Trades
no open positions (51 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 $0 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 $0 +14%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1 $0 +21%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1 $0 +20%
Will Ōita Trinita win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 $0 +19%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 $0 +12%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 $0 +5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 $0 +22%
Will Portugal vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Curaçao vs. Aruba end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Honduras end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Bolivia vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Nicaragua win on 2026-06-05? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-05? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia end in a draw? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mongolia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $1 +$18 +1768%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $2 $0 -11%
Will British Virgin Islands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Madagascar win on 2026-06-02? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Will North Macedonia win on 2026-06-01? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Malta win on 2026-06-01? May 31 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-05-31? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iceland win on 2026-05-31? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mongolia win on 2026-05-31? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Nicaragua win on 2026-05-29? May 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-05-30? May 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-05-30? May 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-05-30? May 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 +$8 +786%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FK Kudrivka win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FK Obolon Kyiv win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FK Rukh Lviv win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Henan FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2 +$8 +413%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-23? May 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 7d
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 9d
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 9d
Will Ōita Trinita win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 10d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 10d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 10d
Will Ōita Trinita win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 10d
Will Portugal vs. Chile end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11d
Will Portugal vs. Chile end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 11d
Will Curaçao vs. Aruba end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 11d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 11d
Will England win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 11d
Will Argentina vs. Honduras end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 11d
Will Bolivia vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 11d
Will Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 11d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 11d
Will Nicaragua win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12d
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records