Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:09:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B3 0xb3b4…48b2 weather 416 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 147d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,293 (+6%) realized +$3,273 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate45%178W / 217L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,087now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$186
14 days−$432
30 days−$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% +$2,741
other 5% −$2
sports 0% −$56
crypto 0% −$90
politics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -15.4% -23.5% 60% 32% +3.0%
≤30d 127 -32.7% -39.1% 37% 26% -10.4%
≤90d 260 -13.1% -21.4% 45% 33% -4.8%
all 395 -17.8% -25.7% 45% 32% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.7% 32% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -32.8% 22% -14.4%
15% -39.3% 15% -22.7%
20% -45.2% 13% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -32% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$30 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$1,087
Realized+$3,273
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses178 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions21
Markets (closed)395 / 416
History coverage147d ⚠
Avg bet$126
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 395 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $354 $392 +$37 (+10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $142 $140 −$2 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $131 $111 −$20 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $61 $86 +$25 (+41%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $90 $84 −$5 (-6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $70 $77 +$8 (+11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $71 $53 −$18 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Yes 31¢ 31¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+50%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $5 −$3 (-36%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$3 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $206 +$102 +50%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$74 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $63 −$5 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $55 −$40 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $17 −$16 -96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$2 +3%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $85 +$44 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $230 +$16 +7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $68 −$32 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $19 −$18 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $23 +$25 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $54 +$113 +209%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $258 +$22 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $207 −$34 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $59 −$58 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $233 +$72 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $63 −$34 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $88 +$18 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $101 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $18 +$4 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $233 +$72 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 2? Jun 09 $29 −$26 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 6? Jun 09 $318 +$63 +20%
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 6? Jun 09 $101 +$85 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 2? Jun 09 $96 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 3? Jun 09 $39 +$43 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 20? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 12? Jun 09 $11 −$9 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 5? Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 11? Jun 09 $35 −$31 -88%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 6? Jun 09 $50 −$27 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 21? Jun 09 $35 −$31 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 14? Jun 09 $96 +$10 +10%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 2? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 5? Jun 09 $39 −$35 -89%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 28? Jun 09 $104 −$42 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 12? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $110 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $35 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $46 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $28 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 77¢ $56 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 93¢ $50 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 48¢ $26 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 94¢ $66 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 75¢ $75 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 34¢ $18 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 55¢ $8 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,086.61 · official $1,086.81 (match) · 3500 history records