Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:24:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B3 0xb3b3…c4ef other 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,963 (+2%) realized +$1,962 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate81%46W / 11L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,344per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$284now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$29
sports 17% +$1,899
politics 15% +$8
world 13% +$25
tech 2% +$2
crypto 2% +$1
finance 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 7 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤90d 13 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.5%
all 57 +0.3% -9.3% 81% 2% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 2% -7.3%
10% -18.0% 2% -16.1%
15% -25.9% 2% -24.3%
20% -33.2% 2% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$2,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$1 · ×51.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×476.92 per $1 lost it wins $476.92
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$284
Realized+$1,962
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses46 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)57 / 59
History coverage137d
Avg bet$1,344
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $244 $244 −$0 (-0%)
NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors? No 96¢ 98¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 28 $243 +$1 +0%
Will Luke Kornet score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will Jordan Clarkson score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Fina Jun 14 $32 $0 +1%
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Game" during Tele-Rally? Jun 09 $101 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Get Out And Vote" during Tele-Rally? Jun 08 $39 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $128 +$11 +8%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $142 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 01 $140 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 10+ times during Cabinet meeting on Apr 04 $141 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March Mar 26 $141 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Egg" during Memphis Roundtable? Mar 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Favored Nation" during Memphis Roundtable? Mar 24 $116 $0 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 235.5 Mar 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 23 $549 +$1 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $3,342 +$7 +0%
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars? Mar 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March Mar 13 $548 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March Mar 11 $548 +$1 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-06? Mar 07 $3,873 +$7 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 1 Mar 06 $1,521 +$2 +0%
Will the DHS shutdown end between February 28-March 3, 2026? Mar 06 $2,348 +$2 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $3,851 +$17 +0%
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $3,844 +$6 +0%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $2,000 +$2 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? Feb 28 $180 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA dip to $144 in February? Feb 28 $959 +$1 +0%
Will Tesla reach $533 in February? Feb 28 $1,007 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Feb 28 $1,695 $0 +0%
Will the DHS shutdown end between February 24-27, 2026? Feb 27 $1,964 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from February 24 to Mar Feb 26 $308 $0 +0%
Will there be 18–20 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will there be 20 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 25 $1,970 +$6 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 24 $500 +$1 +0%
Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2025-12-20? Feb 24 $1,476 +$2 +0%
Will there be 16–18 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19? Feb 24 $498 +$2 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 23? Feb 23 $999 $0 +0%
Will Finland record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $114 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $3,845 $0 +0%
Will the DHS shutdown last 10 days or more? Feb 22 $3,845 $0 -0%
Prince Andrew released by February 21? Feb 19 $1,870 $0 +0%
Prince Andrew released by February 22? Feb 19 $1,267 $0 -0%
Prince Andrew released by February 19? Feb 19 $708 $0 +0%
Will Poland record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 19 $3,845 $0 +0%
Will Lou Jeanmonnot record the most medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics Feb 18 $3,958 $0 -0%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game MVP? Feb 16 $3,950 +$8 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $244 1h
Will South Korea reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 99¢ $243 4d
Will Trump say "Get Out And Vote" during Tele-Rally? BUY Yes 100¢ $39 21d
Will Trump say "Game" during Tele-Rally? BUY No 100¢ $101 21d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $139 23d
Will Luke Kornet score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $41 23d
Will Jordan Clarkson score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Fina BUY No 99¢ $32 23d
NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors? BUY No 96¢ $39 23d
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? BUY No 100¢ $30 23d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 100¢ $142 35d
Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $41 49d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 100¢ $60 49d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $40 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $140 86d
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 10+ times during Cabinet meeting on BUY No 100¢ $141 95d
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March BUY No 100¢ $141 97d
Will Trump say "Favored Nation" during Memphis Roundtable? BUY No 100¢ $116 98d
Will Trump say "Egg" during Memphis Roundtable? BUY No 100¢ $25 98d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $1,037 103d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $2,312 103d
Will White House post 0-19 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $549 104d
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 105d
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 105d
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March BUY No 100¢ $548 110d
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March SELL No 100¢ $132 110d
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March SELL No 100¢ $417 110d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $3,342 111d
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March BUY No 100¢ $548 113d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-06? BUY No 100¢ $485 115d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-06? BUY No 100¢ $2,814 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $284.21 · official $284.21 (match) · 317 history records