Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:42:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3b2…da22 other 246 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d only
✗ bot/MM pace (225 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$143 (+2%) realized +$150 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate56%107W / 84L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day225.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$25
14 days+$58
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% +$47
other 29% +$11
world 24% +$37
tech 7% −$5
finance 4% −$2
sports 2% +$4
economics 1% −$4
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (225 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 +14.8% +3.9% 57% 12% -7.8%
≤30d 191 +42.9% +29.3% 56% 16% -7.5%
≤90d 191 +42.9% +29.3% 56% 16% -7.5%
all 191 +42.9% +29.3% 56% 16% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover225.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +29.3% 16% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here +16.9% 10% -16.4%
15% +5.6% 8% -24.4%
20% -4.7% 7% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late +46% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized+$150
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses107 / 84
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions66
Markets (closed)191 / 246
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day225.5
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 66 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No 84¢ 85¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? No 82¢ 83¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 61¢ 48¢ $7 $6 −$2 (-22%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? No 48¢ 48¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? No 47¢ 47¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Yes 39¢ 32¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Vanta IPO before 2027? No 72¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 74¢ 84¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? Yes 20¢ 39¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+95%)
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 81¢ 64¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Yes 36¢ 37¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? No 34¢ 36¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? No 64¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? No 85¢ 88¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 33¢ 31¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-6%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 89¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026? Jun 17 $0 +$4 +5480%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 +278%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 17 $1 −$40 -3810%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +178%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Jun 17 $1 −$2 -229%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Jun 17 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026? Jun 17 $34 +$1 +3%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 17 $112 +$3 +2%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? Jun 17 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Jun 17 $23 $0 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? Jun 17 $75 −$1 -1%
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Jun 17 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 17 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $34 +$1 +4%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $38 $0 +1%
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Jun 17 $31 +$1 +4%
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Jun 16 $39 −$1 -2%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Jun 16 $3 +$6 +203%
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? Jun 16 $94 +$2 +2%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Jun 16 $31 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $79 −$2 -3%
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? Jun 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 16 $109 +$2 +2%
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? Jun 16 $33 +$2 +5%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $27 +$1 +4%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 16 $173 +$18 +10%
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? Jun 16 $53 +$1 +3%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Jun 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Jun 16 $9 $0 +2%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June? Jun 16 $21 +$2 +10%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? Jun 16 $64 −$5 -8%
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Jun 16 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Jun 16 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Jun 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.6B? Jun 16 $13 −$1 -5%
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? Jun 16 $11 $0 -2%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 16 $9 −$1 -15%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Jun 15 $34 −$4 -13%
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? Jun 15 $37 +$1 +2%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 15 $54 $0 +0%
US bank failure by June 30? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +78%
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? Jun 15 $26 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $17 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 5m
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? BUY Yes 73¢ $6 42m
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 46m
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $0 50m
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 52m
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026? SELL No 19¢ $2 52m
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 37¢ $3 1h
Vanta IPO before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $4 1h
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $0 1h
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $1 1h
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? BUY Yes 74¢ $6 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $1 1h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 1h
Vanta IPO before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $6 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 1h
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? SELL No 49¢ $1 1h
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? SELL No 49¢ $1 1h
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 2h
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? BUY No 25¢ $2 2h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 2h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 2h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $5 2h
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? SELL No 24¢ $1 2h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 3h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $19 3h
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? BUY No 47¢ $4 3h
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 3h
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.61 · official $150.78 · 3500 history records