Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:16:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3b1…692c weather 214 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$25 (+2%) realized +$26 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate94%192W / 12L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$39
14 days−$6
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -9.9% -18.4% 84% 17% -17.6%
≤30d 204 +1.7% -8.0% 94% 16% -8.0%
≤90d 204 +1.7% -8.0% 94% 16% -8.0%
all 204 +1.7% -8.0% 94% 16% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 16% -8.0%
10% -16.8% 3% -16.8%
15% -24.9% 0% -24.8%
20% -32.2% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses192 / 12
Open positions10
Markets (closed)204 / 214
History coverage29d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? No 82¢ 98¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? No 88¢ 95¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? No 90¢ 92¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 96¢ 98¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? No 95¢ 96¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? No 99¢ 98¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 17? No 94¢ 92¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? No 96¢ 89¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? No 95¢ 86¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? No 96¢ 71¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 1? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 24? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 28? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 1? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on May 23? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 3? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $7 57m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $7 57m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $7 57m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $7 57m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $7 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $7 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $7 18h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $7 18h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $7 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $8 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $7 24h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $7 32h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $7 33h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $7 43h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $7 43h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $7 43h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $7 43h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $7 43h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $7 44h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $7 44h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $7 44h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $7 44h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $8 44h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.03 · official $68.88 (match) · 425 history records