Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:12:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3b0…8501 crypto 195 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (375 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$88 (-0%) realized +$39 · open −$127
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate92%165W / 14L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day375.0pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2,819now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$127
other 24% −$173
sports 2% −$7
politics 1% −$48
world 1% −$50
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (375 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 179 -0.1% -9.6% 92% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 179 -0.1% -9.6% 92% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 179 -0.1% -9.6% 92% 0% -10.3%
all 179 -0.1% -9.6% 92% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover375.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 0% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$33 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,819
Realized+$39
Unrealized−$127
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses165 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions16
Markets (closed)179 / 195
History coverage1d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day375.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $944 $942 −$2 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $884 $885 +$0 (+0%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ 52¢ $260 $258 −$2 (-1%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $170 $172 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $146 $144 −$2 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 49¢ 32¢ $108 $69 −$38 (-36%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 36¢ 28¢ $86 $68 −$18 (-21%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $54 $54 −$1 (-1%)
Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia? No 61¢ 49¢ $65 $52 −$13 (-20%)
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes 59¢ 49¢ $63 $52 −$11 (-17%)
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? No 66¢ 64¢ $46 $45 −$2 (-4%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? Yes 41¢ 23¢ $50 $28 −$22 (-44%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 21¢ 20¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-6%)
Will Pierre Chanel Tutugoro be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia? Yes 29¢ 8¢ $23 $6 −$17 (-73%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 25 $363 +$3 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 25 $44 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 25 $315 +$3 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 25 $114 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 25 $363 +$3 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 25 $63 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 25 $182 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 25 $136 +$1 +1%
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 25 $23 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $182 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $57 +$1 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $182 +$2 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $114 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $68 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $378 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $303 −$303 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $227 +$2 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $227 +$2 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $114 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $757 $0 +0%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 25 $287 −$7 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $90 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $45 $0 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,482 −$32 -2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,518 −$42 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $11 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $55 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $757 +$6 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 25 $84 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 25 $182 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $242 +$2 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $89 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $22 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 25 $81 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $18 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $107 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $757 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $182 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $114 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET Jun 25 $303 +$3 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 25 $17 $0 +1%
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Jun 25 $90 −$15 -17%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $99 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $182 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $68 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $40 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $363 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $279 3m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $44 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $363 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $63 7m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 8m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 8m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 71¢ $171 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $182 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $136 17m
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele SELL No 35¢ $21 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $182 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $57 26m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $885 32m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $945 32m
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $23 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $182 47m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $68 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $32 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $303 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $66 53m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 53m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $17 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,818.96 · official $2,818.98 (match) · 542 history records