Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:54:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3ad…2e4f other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$206 (-1%) realized −$206 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,139per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$401
7 days+$428
14 days−$523
30 days−$351
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$680
crypto 2% +$49
other 2% +$18
sports 0% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +83.1% +65.7% 75% 58% +1.2%
≤30d 19 +51.6% +37.1% 63% 47% -10.7%
≤90d 22 +43.0% +29.4% 59% 41% -11.5%
all 22 +43.0% +29.4% 59% 41% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.4% 41% -11.5%
10% +17.0% 36% -19.9%
15% +5.7% 27% -27.7%
20% -4.7% 18% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$982) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +86% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$277 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$206
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage100d
Avg bet$1,139
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 21 $982 +$239 +24%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $1,614 +$96 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 +$22 +711%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$1 +30%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 −$16 -16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $601 +$49 +8%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$3 -52%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $14 +$5 +38%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $157 −$43 -27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $104 +$59 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $8,711 −$1,208 -14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $1 −$1 -69%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $10,273 +$254 +2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 01 $1,212 +$1,147 +95%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $2,240 −$975 -44%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 16 $839 −$232 -28%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $284 +$11 +4%
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 10 $123 −$12 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 41m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 98¢ $1,135 51m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 76¢ $283 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 74¢ $491 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 97¢ $775 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 44¢ $58 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 23¢ $57 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 46¢ $92 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 93¢ $93 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 44¢ $29 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 34¢ $28 3h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 34¢ $30 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 19h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 82¢ $20 19h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 85¢ $791 19h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 20h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL 51¢ $86 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $651 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $601 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 59¢ $101 29h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 89¢ $718 29h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $14 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $110 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $114 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.95 · official $6.95 (match) · 155 history records