Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:30:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3aa…ed88 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-2%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate28%9W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$36
world 36% +$19
politics 13% +$3
crypto 5% −$1
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 7 +0.4% -9.1% 29% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 10 +1.7% -8.0% 40% 10% -7.1%
all 32 -6.2% -15.1% 28% 3% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 3% -10.9%
10% -23.2% 0% -19.4%
15% -30.7% 0% -27.2%
20% -37.5% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses9 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage302d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $39 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $130 −$1 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $62 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $142 −$2 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $25 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $8 $0 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $68 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $121 +$20 +17%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $2 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $55 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 17 $1 $0 -14%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 13 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 13 $67 −$2 -4%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Dec 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $5 −$2 -30%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $26 +$3 +10%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Sep 02 $2 −$1 -70%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Aug 28 $53 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 28 $26 $0 -0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 27 $29 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 27 $36 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 26 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $11 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $28 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $39 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $27 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $38 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $53 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $13 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $62 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $62 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $60 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $3 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $64 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $35 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $31 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $66 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $41 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $32 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $76 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $24 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $25 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $9 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $13 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $47 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $29 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $29 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 146 history records