Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:06:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3a7…9b95 sports 35 markets active 5h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$110 (-4%) realized −$93 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day19.9pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$54
other 19% −$186
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -15.2% -23.3% 38% 38% -17.1%
≤30d 16 -15.2% -23.3% 38% 38% -17.1%
≤90d 16 -15.2% -23.3% 38% 38% -17.1%
all 16 -15.2% -23.3% 38% 38% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 38% -17.1%
10% -30.6% 38% -25.0%
15% -37.3% 31% -32.3%
20% -43.5% 25% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +70% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$81 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,233
Realized−$93
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions19
Markets (closed)16 / 35
History coverage2d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Brazil 31¢ 32¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 51¢ 52¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 36¢ 36¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Under 26¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Under 26¢ 24¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Under 34¢ 36¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Uruguay 16¢ 16¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 39¢ 40¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Australia 66¢ 66¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? No 39¢ 38¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 37¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Under 30¢ 30¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Under 72¢ 70¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Iraq 48¢ 46¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Iraq 28¢ 26¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 42¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 38¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$71 +140%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$38 +38%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 +$298 +291%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$142 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $102 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $51 15h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $102 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 36¢ $102 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 20h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $101 21h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $102 21h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 21¢ $102 21h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 71¢ $101 23h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $101 27h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $102 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $102 27h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 74¢ $101 27h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 27h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 36h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $51 43h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 43h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $50 43h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $51 43h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $51 43h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $51 43h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 39¢ $51 43h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 72¢ $50 43h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $51 43h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 30¢ $51 43h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 48¢ $51 43h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Iraq 28¢ $51 43h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 16¢ $51 43h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 37¢ $51 43h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $51 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,233.07 · official $1,233.07 (match) · 55 history records