Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:56:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3a3…6646 world 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate41%30W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$3
other 21% +$2
politics 17% −$12
sports 5% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.8% -8.8% 38% 12% -9.8%
≤30d 31 +0.9% -8.7% 39% 6% -9.2%
≤90d 70 -0.5% -10.0% 39% 4% -9.3%
all 74 -1.7% -11.0% 41% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 4% -9.7%
10% -19.5% 3% -18.4%
15% -27.3% 1% -26.3%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses30 / 44
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)74 / 78
History coverage535d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 61¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 85¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $31 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $78 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $7 +$1 +11%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $33 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $82 −$2 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $78 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $36 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $39 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $36 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $12 +$3 +25%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $135 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $95 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $38 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $64 +$3 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $56 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $62 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $32 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $69 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $46 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $68 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $33 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $36 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $30 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $31 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $2 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $65 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $95 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $34 $0 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $1 $0 -7%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $98 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $76 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $66 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $68 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $30 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $31 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $38 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $38 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 23h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $34 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $14 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $19 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $34 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $34 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $37 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $16 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $6 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $16 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $16 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.98 · official $37.91 · 310 history records