Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:38:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb39f…7c90 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$171 (-27%) realized −$171 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%13W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$57
14 days−$136
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$67
sports 17% −$71
crypto 14% −$37
weather 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -18.3% -26.1% 45% 40% -23.5%
≤30d 37 -35.9% -42.0% 35% 32% -34.3%
≤90d 39 -36.6% -42.6% 33% 31% -38.1%
all 39 -36.6% -42.6% 33% 31% -38.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.6% 31% -38.1%
10% -48.1% 23% -44.1%
15% -53.1% 23% -49.5%
20% -57.7% 15% -54.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$171
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses13 / 26
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage37d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $24 +$13 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $41 −$29 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$10 +94%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $43 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $29 +$15 +50%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $23 −$2 -10%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $6 −$4 -65%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $27 +$6 +21%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $24 +$4 +15%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $19 +$10 +52%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 20 $5 $0 -1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $13 +$8 +65%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +96%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 19 $15 −$4 -23%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $55 −$40 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $11 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $20 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 28h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 91¢ $43 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $43 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 39h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $24 40h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 25¢ $24 40h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 41h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $20 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $29 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 50¢ $33 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.38 · official $39.38 (match) · 90 history records