Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:38:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B3 0xb397…a2d4 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7,243 (-85%) realized −$7,861 · open +$618
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$945per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$1,033now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$6,690
crypto 2% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-42.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -10.9% -19.4% 33% 33% -24.4%
≤30d 7 -36.1% -42.1% 14% 14% -93.7%
≤90d 7 -36.1% -42.1% 14% 14% -93.7%
all 7 -36.1% -42.1% 14% 14% -93.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.1% 14% -93.7%
10% -47.7% 14% -94.3%
15% -52.7% 14% -94.8%
20% -57.4% 14% -95.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -93% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -93% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$1,237 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,033
Realized−$7,861
Unrealized+$618
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage10d
Avg bet$945
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 9¢ 26¢ $315 $927 +$612 (+194%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $145 −$13 -9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $133 +$101 +76%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $163 −$160 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 20 $6,996 −$6,806 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $103 −$9 -8%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 20 $103 −$11 -11%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $435 −$423 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $323 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 40¢ $91 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $234 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $91 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 42¢ $41 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $44 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $72 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $133 8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 9d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $963 9d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $1,028 9d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $504 9d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $1,460 9d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $98 9d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 4¢ $94 9d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $710 9d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 3¢ $91 9d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 10d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 10d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $1,358 10d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $869 10d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $314 10d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $122 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,032.61 · official $1,067.63 · 25 history records