Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb395…0240 sports 22 markets active 172d ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%10W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 99% $0
sports 1% −$10
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 22 -25.5% -32.6% 45% 41% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.6% 41% -9.8%
10% -39.0% 32% -18.5%
15% -44.9% 27% -26.3%
20% -50.3% 23% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses10 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage13d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? Dec 25 $3,383 $0 +0%
Raptors vs. Heat Dec 25 $2 −$2 -100%
49ers vs. Colts Dec 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tanzania win on 2025-12-23? Dec 25 $1 $0 +10%
Bengals vs. Dolphins Dec 22 $1 +$1 +52%
Jets vs. Avalanche Dec 22 $1 +$1 +43%
Rams vs. Seahawks Dec 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Pacers Dec 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Kings vs. Panthers Dec 19 $1 +$1 +75%
Blackhawks vs. Maple Leafs Dec 17 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-12-15? Dec 17 $2 +$1 +54%
Raiders vs. Eagles Dec 15 $1 $0 +15%
Cardinals vs. Texans Dec 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bills vs. Patriots Dec 15 $2 +$2 +85%
Chargers vs. Chiefs Dec 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Commanders vs. Giants Dec 15 $3 −$3 -100%
UTEP Miners vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Dec 14 $1 $0 -2%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Dec 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Kraken vs. Utah Dec 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-12? Dec 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Pacers vs. 76ers Dec 13 $2 +$1 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 172d
Raptors vs. Heat BUY Heat 66¢ $2 174d
Will Tanzania win on 2025-12-23? BUY No 91¢ $1 174d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 174d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 174d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 174d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 174d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 174d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 174d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 174d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 174d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 241 history records