Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:47:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B3
0xb391…3b18
economics · 101 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$1,268 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,246 · open +$22
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$777
Realized+$1,246
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses41 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions26
Markets (closed)75 / 101
History coverage590d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 26 History 75 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$39
14 days+$19
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 74¢ 81¢ $150 $165 +$15 (+10%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 91¢ 93¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 79¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 80¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 23¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 62¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+58%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 30¢ 23¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+47%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 53¢ 60¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 67¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 13 $150 +$15 +10%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +157%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 04 $20 −$12 -59%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $10 −$3 -31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $10 −$6 -58%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? May 23 $10 −$5 -54%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 17 $50 +$13 +26%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 15 $22 −$21 -98%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 01 $100 +$22 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 19 $30 +$11 +35%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Mar 19 $30 −$21 -72%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Mar 19 $54 −$25 -46%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 09 $82 +$16 +20%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 11 $8 +$5 +58%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $30 +$9 +30%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 12 $1,528 −$844 -55%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Dec 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Dec 03 $147 −$147 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Dec 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 03 $110 −$101 -92%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 25 $128 −$99 -78%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 06 $248 +$61 +24%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Nov 04 $20 +$11 +56%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $1,021 +$146 +14%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 14 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 04 $20 +$108 +538%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? Sep 23 $50 −$17 -34%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 18 $2,501 +$1,119 +45%
Rangers vs. Astros Sep 17 $10 +$3 +33%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 16 $800 −$72 -9%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 31 $2,000 +$470 +24%
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? Jun 24 $16 +$3 +18%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 23 $1,984 +$302 +15%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1,845 +$331 +18%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
US-China trade deal before June? May 17 $250 −$250 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $826 +$170 +21%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? May 05 $8 +$1 +10%
TikTok sale announced before May? Apr 22 $300 −$291 -97%
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days? Mar 19 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Mar 06 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference? Mar 06 $10 $0 +4%
TikTok sale announced before April? Feb 27 $100 −$73 -73%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Feb 25 $30 +$3 +9%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Feb 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 63% +$1,181
sports 11% +$321
politics 9% +$303
tech 9% −$232
other 4% −$219
crypto 2% +$73
finance 1% −$147
world 1% −$13
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $147 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $121 5d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 6d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 6d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $18 6d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $43 6d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $7 6d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 6d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 6d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 6d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 6d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 6d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 54¢ $7 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 18d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 18d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 72¢ $20 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +69.4% +53.3% 100% 67% +10.2%
≤30d 9 -7.2% -16.1% 44% 33% -8.1%
≤90d 15 -21.7% -29.1% 40% 33% -14.4%
all 75 -6.5% -15.4% 55% 45% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 45% -3.3%
10% -23.5% 28% -12.6%
15% -30.9% 13% -21.0%
20% -37.7% 8% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $776.86 · official $776.32 (match) · 494 history records