Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb38f…23dd crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$264 (-66%) realized −$268 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%7W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$114
14 days−$114
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$130
crypto 27% −$16
sports 19% −$76
world 10% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-54.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -69.6% -72.5% 11% 11% -84.2%
≤30d 9 -69.6% -72.5% 11% 11% -84.2%
≤90d 9 -69.6% -72.5% 11% 11% -84.2%
all 39 -50.1% -54.9% 18% 18% -72.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.9% 18% -72.7%
10% -59.2% 13% -75.3%
15% -63.2% 13% -77.7%
20% -66.8% 13% -79.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -82% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -75% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$268
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses7 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage115d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 100¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $33 −$33 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 -8%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +19%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 13 $15 −$6 -38%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 08 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Feb 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Feb 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 202 Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 20 Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Feb 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Feb 25 $15 +$18 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Feb 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Feb 25 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Feb 25 $11 +$13 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Feb 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Feb 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Feb 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Feb 25 $1 +$6 +564%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026 Feb 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 25 $25 −$25 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Feb 25 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Feb 25 $5 +$7 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $16 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $29 28h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 75¢ $25 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 33¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3d
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 3d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY Natus Vincere 22¢ $46 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 108d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $5 108d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 20 BUY Yes 4¢ $5 111d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 202 BUY Yes 32¢ $10 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $14 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $15 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $11 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.75 · official $19.46 (match) · 75 history records