Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:24:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B3 0xb38a…3293 crypto 188 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$37,402 (-13%) realized −$37,402 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%79W / 109L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,482per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$942now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$304
7 days+$304
14 days+$304
30 days+$304
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$2,967
sports 19% −$35,445
other 7% −$683
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -32.8% -39.2% 36% 36% +29.1%
≤30d 14 -32.8% -39.2% 36% 36% +29.1%
≤90d 15 -37.3% -43.3% 33% 33% -83.7%
all 188 -6.4% -15.3% 42% 40% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 40% -22.3%
10% -23.4% 38% -29.8%
15% -30.8% 36% -36.5%
20% -37.6% 33% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -82% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$1,200) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,103 vs −$1,158 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$942
Realized−$37,402
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses79 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions0
Markets (closed)188 / 188
History coverage117d
Avg bet$1,482
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 188 Trades
no open positions (98 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 28 $11 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 28 $31 −$4 -14%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $306 +$593 +194%
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 28 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 28 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$15 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $4,992 −$4,935 -99%
Miami Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Jakub Mensik Mar 23 $18,973 −$18,973 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 23 $200 +$391 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 23 $200 −$197 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Nets vs. Kings Mar 23 $175 −$175 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $9,966 +$9,100 +91%
Magic vs. Timberwolves Mar 07 $9,996 −$9,996 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 07 $4,998 −$4,922 -98%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $8,469 −$8,469 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 07 $500 +$919 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 07 $7,306 +$2,743 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 07 $2,000 −$1,970 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 07 $500 −$493 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 07 $1,000 +$554 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 07 $5,000 −$4,941 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 07 $500 −$495 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 07 $500 +$1,306 +261%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 07 $4,000 −$648 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 07 $5,000 −$4,934 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 07 $589 −$584 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 07 $500 −$492 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 07 $250 −$246 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 06 $593 +$462 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 06 $10,879 +$1,991 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 06 $12,870 +$4,702 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 06 $5,000 −$4,925 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 06 $2,000 −$1,962 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 06 $16,874 +$966 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 06 $1,000 −$988 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 06 $4,000 +$1,597 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 06 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 06 $1,000 +$32 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 06 $2,768 +$2,119 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 06 $4,887 +$158 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $306 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 17¢ $102 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 7¢ $103 1h
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY South Africa 2¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 25h
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Cavaliers 62¢ $4,992 63d
Miami Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Jakub Mensik BUY Jakub Mensik 61¢ $18,973 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $591 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $200 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $200 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $100 97d
Nets vs. Kings BUY Nets 12¢ $175 97d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? BUY Yes 52¢ $9,966 98d
Magic vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 72¢ $9,996 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2,219 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $765 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $942.40 · official $942.40 (match) · 432 history records