Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:57:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb387…6ead crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$79 (-6%) realized −$88 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day60.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -15.5% -23.5% 64% 50% -18.7%
≤30d 14 -15.5% -23.5% 64% 50% -18.7%
≤90d 14 -15.5% -23.5% 64% 50% -18.7%
all 14 -15.5% -23.5% 64% 50% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.5% 50% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.8% 29% -26.5%
15% -37.5% 14% -33.6%
20% -43.7% 0% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$35 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day60.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Up 58¢ 64¢ $75 $84 +$9 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$12 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $62 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $206 −$76 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $205 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $109 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $57 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $155 −$19 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $53 −$22 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $97 +$22 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $37 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $9 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $42 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $117 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.05 · official $68.41 · 66 history records