Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:20:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B3 0xb383…3031 crypto 283 markets active 23h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$215 (+7%) realized +$215 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate71%200W / 83L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$9
30 days+$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$63
politics 32% +$228
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +1.4% -8.2% 81% 70% -8.1%
≤30d 283 +5.1% -4.9% 71% 59% -4.5%
≤90d 283 +5.1% -4.9% 71% 59% -4.5%
all 283 +5.1% -4.9% 71% 59% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 59% -4.5%
10% -14.0% 43% -13.6%
15% -22.3% 27% -22.0%
20% -29.9% 15% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$13 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$215
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses200 / 83
Open positions0
Markets (closed)283 / 283
History coverage24d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 283 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 686 history records