Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:23:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B3 0xb381…45d1 politics 168 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$846 (-0%) realized −$842 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate20%32W / 132L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,528per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$636now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$17
14 days−$42
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$1,289
politics 39% −$113
sports 14% +$522
culture 3% −$8
economics 1% −$5
world 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 53 +2.7% -7.1% 9% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 113 +1.7% -7.9% 10% 5% -10.0%
all 164 +4.2% -5.7% 20% 14% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 14% -9.8%
10% -14.7% 14% -18.5%
15% -23.0% 12% -26.3%
20% -30.5% 10% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,116) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$18 · ×2.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$636
Realized−$842
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses32 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)164 / 168
History coverage127d
Avg bet$1,528
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $335 $335 −$0 (-0%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $145 $145 +$1 (+0%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $116 $116 −$0 (-0%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ 38¢ $44 $40 −$5 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $1,085 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $2,456 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $2,116 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $667 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $961 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3,641 −$4 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $10,826 −$11 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,087 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2,926 −$3 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,241 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $634 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,197 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,506 −$2 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $4,304 −$5 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $777 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 05 $54 +$67 +124%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,248 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $746 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $829 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,615 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $714 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 02 $45 +$38 +86%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $184 $0 +0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,228 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 30 $33 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $3,753 −$4 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $2,062 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $665 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $420 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,800 −$2 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $257 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $3,658 −$4 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,965 −$2 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 25 $46 +$65 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $335 12m
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $244 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $116 1h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $245 3h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $230 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $230 3d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $671 3d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $672 3d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $231 4d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $232 4d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $549 5d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $550 5d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $477 5d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $478 5d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $624 5d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $625 6d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $666 6d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $667 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $491 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $491 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $603 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $604 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $599 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $600 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $581 8d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $582 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $561 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $562 10d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $656 10d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $657 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $636.46 · official $636.46 (match) · 590 history records