Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:20:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B3 0xb37f…dd6f crypto 763 markets active 2h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$55 (+1%) realized +$58 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate74%562W / 197L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$32
14 days+$51
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$26
world 14% $0
culture 0% +$1
politics 0% −$3
other 0% −$1
finance 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -4.2% -13.3% 89% 7% -7.3%
≤30d 78 +0.2% -9.4% 91% 6% -7.2%
≤90d 352 -5.0% -14.1% 81% 14% -8.9%
all 759 -4.5% -13.6% 74% 22% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 22% -9.3%
10% -21.9% 13% -18.0%
15% -29.4% 7% -25.9%
20% -36.3% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized+$58
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses562 / 197
Open positions4
Markets (closed)759 / 763
History coverage143d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 759 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? No 98¢ 99¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 59¢ 12¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-79%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $101 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $101 +$7 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $101 +$13 +13%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $55 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $150 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$4 -13%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $17 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 8? Jun 08 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 6? Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $1 $0 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 5? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 4? Jun 05 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $101 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $5 $0 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 3? Jun 04 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3? Jun 04 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 24? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $101 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 92¢ $3 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $101 23h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $100 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $40 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 88¢ $101 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $40 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $15 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $100 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $20 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $20 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $13 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $4 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL No 67¢ $13 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $4 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $30 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $50 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 97¢ $16 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.15 · official $203.05 (match) · 2110 history records