Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B3 0xb37b…e572 sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 705d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+4%) realized +$14 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$4
sports 29% +$21
politics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 1 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 3 +74.4% +57.8% 100% 67% -1.9%
all 27 -10.4% -19.0% 44% 37% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 37% -4.5%
10% -26.7% 37% -13.6%
15% -33.8% 37% -22.0%
20% -40.3% 37% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

705d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage705d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? No 96¢ 96¢ $125 $125 −$0 (-0%)
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 45¢ 57¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $124 +$1 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca Apr 06 $3 +$6 +168%
Senators vs. Rangers Mar 30 $8 +$4 +54%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. Knicks Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Kraken vs. Stars Feb 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Rangers Feb 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Red Wings vs. Avalanche Feb 05 $2 +$4 +186%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Feb 01 $7 +$13 +194%
Sharks vs. Red Wings Jan 23 $10 +$5 +54%
Hornets vs. Jazz Jan 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Lightning vs. Sharks Jan 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Celtics vs. Jazz Dec 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Suns vs. Pelicans Dec 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Blues vs. Lightning Dec 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Canucks vs. Islanders Dec 22 $5 +$7 +133%
Panthers vs. Lightning Dec 19 $7 +$10 +133%
Knicks vs. Raptors Dec 15 $8 +$5 +64%
Pelicans vs. Nets Dec 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Hornets vs. Nets Dec 06 $4 +$7 +163%
Bucks vs. Knicks Nov 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Nov 22 $7 +$5 +67%
Ursula von der Leyen reelected as EU president? Nov 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will Biden say "Ear" during Lester Holt interview? Jul 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will 50 Cent attend the RNC? Jul 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Court temporarily allows Texas to arrest migrants? Jul 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? BUY No 96¢ $125 1h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $124 21h
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 45¢ $3 76d
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Renato Moicano 37¢ $3 83d
Senators vs. Rangers BUY Senators 65¢ $8 90d
Timberwolves vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 32¢ $5 100d
Thunder vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 40¢ $5 109d
Kraken vs. Stars BUY Kraken 36¢ $4 130d
Hurricanes vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 34¢ $3 136d
Red Wings vs. Avalanche BUY Red Wings 35¢ $2 140d
Warriors vs. Timberwolves BUY Warriors 34¢ $7 149d
Sharks vs. Red Wings BUY Red Wings 65¢ $10 156d
Hornets vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 38¢ $6 163d
Lightning vs. Sharks BUY Sharks 37¢ $6 170d
Celtics vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 28¢ $3 173d
Suns vs. Pelicans BUY Pelicans 35¢ $3 176d
Blues vs. Lightning BUY Blues 33¢ $2 182d
Canucks vs. Islanders BUY Canucks 43¢ $5 184d
Panthers vs. Lightning BUY Panthers 43¢ $7 188d
Knicks vs. Raptors BUY Knicks 61¢ $8 195d
Pelicans vs. Nets BUY Pelicans 40¢ $5 197d
Hornets vs. Nets BUY Nets 38¢ $4 203d
Bucks vs. Knicks BUY Bucks 28¢ $3 206d
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale? BUY No 38¢ $2 211d
Nuggets vs. Clippers BUY Nuggets 60¢ $7 221d
Will Biden say "Ear" during Lester Holt interview? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 705d
Will 50 Cent attend the RNC? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 705d
Ursula von der Leyen reelected as EU president? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 705d
Court temporarily allows Texas to arrest migrants? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 705d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.35 · official $128.42 (match) · 42 history records