trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | -9.1% | -17.7% | 44% | 44% | -39.6% |
| ≤30d | 16 | +2.1% | -7.6% | 56% | 44% | -5.8% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 53% | 41% | -6.3% |
| all | 22 | -14.9% | -23.0% | 45% | 36% | -7.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -23.0% | 36% | -7.0% |
| 10% | -30.4% | 23% | -15.9% |
| 15% | -37.1% | 18% | -24.0% |
| 20% | -43.3% | 18% | -31.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | No | 90¢ | 91¢ | $200 | $200 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 21¢ | 20¢ | $20 | $18 | −$2 (-8%) |
| Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $1 | −$1 (-50%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? | Jun 19 | $265 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? | Jun 19 | $298 | −$33 | -11% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | Jun 19 | $180 | +$111 | +62% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? | Jun 18 | $60 | +$75 | +125% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $45 | +$6 | +14% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $20 | +$6 | +28% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 17 | $5,121 | −$2,811 | -55% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 17 | $3,618 | −$855 | -24% |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? | Jun 17 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $370 | −$11 | -3% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 05 | $2,013 | +$190 | +9% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 31 | $1,501 | +$233 | +16% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 29 | $1,029 | −$32 | -3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | May 29 | $193 | +$4 | +2% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | May 27 | $911 | +$117 | +13% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | May 23 | $417 | +$338 | +81% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Mar 25 | $100 | −$41 | -41% |
| Will Trump save TikTok in first week? | Jan 19 | $57 | −$57 | -100% |
| Was Trump hacked? | Jan 18 | $119 | −$119 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 06 | $168 | +$133 | +79% |
| Elon Musk post "retardio" in April? | Nov 03 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Fed raises interest rates by 25+ bps after 2024 May meeting? | Nov 03 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |