Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:31:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B3 0xb379…0a55 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%31W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$10
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$3
sports 14% +$7
world 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 31 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 31 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 31 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -9.0%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses31 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage27d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nicolai Højgaard lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the third round? No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alex Noren lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the third round? Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Scottie Scheffler make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chris Gotterup make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Will Viktor Hovland lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the first round? Jun 19 $98 $0 +0%
Will Jacob Bridgeman lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the first round Jun 18 $97 $0 +0%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $98 $0 +0%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $97 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $97 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $97 $0 +0%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $97 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $97 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $97 $0 +0%
Will Nick Taylor finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $96 $0 +0%
Will Paul Waring finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 12 $96 $0 +0%
Will Kyrgyz Republic vs. Palestine end in a draw? Jun 08 $84 +$6 +8%
Will Corey Conners finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 the Memorial Tourna Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Rickie Fowler finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 the Memorial Tourna Jun 06 $61 $0 +0%
Will Robert MacIntyre finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 the Memorial Tou Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will Jake Knapp finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 the Memorial Tournamen Jun 04 $90 $0 +0%
Will Lucas Glover finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Charles Schwab Chal Jun 01 $90 $0 +0%
Will Ze-Cheng Dou finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 Charles Schwab Chal May 30 $90 $0 +0%
Will Stephan Jaeger finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron May 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will Sung-Jae Im finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nel May 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will Jackson Suber finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Ne May 25 $67 $0 +0%
Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byro May 25 $12 $0 +3%
Will Adam Svensson finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Ne May 24 $89 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolai Højgaard lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the third roun BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Alex Noren lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the third round? BUY No 100¢ $16 8h
Will Hideki Matsuyama make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 9h
Will Hideki Matsuyama make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 9h
Will Hideki Matsuyama make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 9h
Will Hideki Matsuyama make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 98¢ $46 9h
Will Chris Gotterup make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 9h
Will Scottie Scheffler make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 9h
Will Hideki Matsuyama make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 98¢ $13 9h
Will Viktor Hovland lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the first round? BUY No 100¢ $98 36h
Will Jacob Bridgeman lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the first round BUY No 100¢ $97 39h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $98 2d
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY No 100¢ $97 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 100¢ $97 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? BUY No 100¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? BUY No 100¢ $55 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? BUY No 100¢ $42 3d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY No 100¢ $97 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $97 4d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $25 4d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $25 4d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $25 4d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? BUY No 100¢ $97 5d
Will Nick Taylor finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 100¢ $96 6d
Will Paul Waring finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 100¢ $96 8d
Will Corey Conners finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 the Memorial Tourna BUY No 100¢ $6 13d
Will Kyrgyz Republic vs. Palestine end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $84 13d
Will Robert MacIntyre finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 the Memorial Tou BUY No 100¢ $29 14d
Will Rickie Fowler finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 the Memorial Tourna BUY No 100¢ $61 14d
Will Jake Knapp finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 the Memorial Tournamen BUY No 100¢ $90 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.44 · official $99.44 (match) · 69 history records