Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:27:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb377…97c2 politics 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$14 (-2%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% $0
politics 18% −$12
crypto 13% $0
sports 8% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 60% 0% -9.5%
all 14 -8.3% -17.0% 29% 0% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 0% -11.3%
10% -25.0% 0% -19.8%
15% -32.2% 0% -27.5%
20% -38.9% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage121d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 27 $136 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 19? Apr 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 28 $292 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on April 3? Apr 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 25? Apr 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Mar 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on March 19? Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $19 −$2 -8%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 28 $39 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 27 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 27 $19 −$2 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $136 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $136 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $143 60d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $39 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $56 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $48 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 71d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $104 81d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $44 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $28 85d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on April 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records