Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:00:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb375…b901 crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24 (-22%) realized −$22 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$6
crypto 46% −$19
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-46.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -40.3% -46.0% 36% 27% -42.8%
≤30d 11 -40.3% -46.0% 36% 27% -42.8%
≤90d 11 -40.3% -46.0% 36% 27% -42.8%
all 11 -40.3% -46.0% 36% 27% -42.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.0% 27% -42.8%
10% -51.2% 27% -48.3%
15% -55.9% 9% -53.3%
20% -60.2% 9% -57.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage8d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$5 -66%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 -15%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$13 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$5 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 SELL Over 70¢ $2 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $3 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $2 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.86 · official $15.87 (match) · 39 history records