Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:48:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb373…d97c sports 355 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,934 (+9%) realized +$3,120 · open −$186
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%192W / 153L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$334est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$650now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,071
7 days+$1,268
14 days−$912
30 days+$2,241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$1,365
other 14% +$499
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +5.7% -4.4% 57% 51% +2.6%
≤30d 323 +2.0% -7.7% 56% 50% -2.6%
≤90d 345 +1.2% -8.4% 56% 50% -3.3%
all 345 +1.2% -8.4% 56% 50% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 50% -3.3%
10% -17.2% 44% -12.6%
15% -25.2% 36% -21.0%
20% -32.5% 30% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +41% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$57 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$650
Realized+$3,120
Unrealized−$186
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses192 / 153
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$334
Open positions10
Markets (closed)345 / 355
History coverage87d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 345 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MEN Jun 23 $128 +$318 +248%
Rainbow Six Siege: Twisted Minds vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea Jun 23 $209 +$15 +7%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $18 +$20 +113%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $78 +$54 +70%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Fnatic (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 23 $138 +$76 +55%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Leagu Jun 23 $26 −$25 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 22 $122 +$28 +23%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 22 $109 +$62 +56%
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 22 $357 +$573 +160%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $23 +$14 +59%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 22 $63 −$63 -100%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 22 $5 +$1 +20%
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 Jun 22 $36 +$19 +52%
Will m0NESY have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 Jun 22 $331 +$37 +11%
Will ZywOo have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 Jun 22 $86 +$5 +6%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 21 $745 +$24 +3%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 21 $165 +$138 +83%
Will sh1ro have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 Jun 21 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $1,451 +$1,565 +108%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $538 +$212 +40%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close Jun 21 $272 +$61 +22%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 21 $47 +$53 +113%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina Jun 21 $77 −$76 -99%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag Jun 21 $200 −$36 -18%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League S Jun 20 $997 −$334 -34%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 20 $95 −$95 -100%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $63 +$37 +59%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $81 −$81 -100%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of D Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $1,112 −$995 -90%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $84 −$84 -100%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $254 −$4 -2%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis Jun 20 $41 +$59 +141%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $9 +$7 +75%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $1 +$1 +117%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 20 $76 +$42 +56%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 20 $72 −$48 -67%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of D Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 19 $67 −$67 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $15 +$5 +32%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $85 +$146 +172%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $110 +$41 +37%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $17 +$13 +72%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 18 $70 −$20 -29%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 18 $10 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $97 −$40 -41%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr Jun 18 $50 −$20 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER BUY shimmer 76¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER BUY Atrix Esports 29¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER BUY Atrix Esports 29¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER BUY Atrix Esports 29¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER BUY shimmer 54¢ $21 2h
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER BUY shimmer 54¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER BUY shimmer 54¢ $55 2h
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER BUY shimmer 54¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY METANOIA WOLVES 28¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY MIBR Academy 69¢ $18 3h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY MIBR Academy 69¢ $14 3h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY MIBR Academy 69¢ $12 3h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY MIBR Academy 69¢ $14 3h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY MIBR Academy 69¢ $7 3h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY MIBR Academy 69¢ $19 3h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY MIBR Academy 69¢ $19 3h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY METANOIA WOLVES 47¢ $11 4h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY METANOIA WOLVES 44¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY METANOIA WOLVES 44¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY METANOIA WOLVES 44¢ $7 4h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY METANOIA WOLVES 44¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY METANOIA WOLVES 44¢ $9 4h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY METANOIA WOLVES 45¢ $7 5h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY METANOIA WOLVES 38¢ $3 7h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY METANOIA WOLVES 38¢ $2 7h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY METANOIA WOLVES 38¢ $2 7h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY METANOIA WOLVES 38¢ $7 7h
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MEN BUY Geekay Esports 21¢ $4 7h
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MEN BUY Geekay Esports 21¢ $3 7h
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MEN BUY Geekay Esports 21¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $649.78 · official $649.78 (match) · 2037 history records