Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb36f…233c other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-6%) realized −$18 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$4
sports 38% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -10.8% -19.3% 0% 0% -15.3%
≤30d 3 -10.8% -19.3% 0% 0% -15.3%
≤90d 3 -10.8% -19.3% 0% 0% -15.3%
all 3 -10.8% -19.3% 0% 0% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 0% -15.3%
10% -27.0% 0% -23.4%
15% -34.0% 0% -30.8%
20% -40.5% 0% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)3 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 13¢ 26¢ $20 $41 +$21 (+104%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $20 $32 +$12 (+58%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $35 $30 −$5 (-14%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-22%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 5¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-58%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$2 -8%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $66 −$3 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.97 · official $147.28 · 13 history records