Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb36f…53d0 sports 120 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$463 (-1%) realized −$405 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%53W / 64L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$418per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$682est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$4,083
other 1% −$230
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -14.5% -22.7% 47% 47% -22.6%
≤30d 117 -21.0% -28.6% 45% 44% -17.6%
≤90d 117 -21.0% -28.6% 45% 44% -17.6%
all 117 -21.0% -28.6% 45% 44% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 44% -17.6%
10% -35.4% 41% -25.5%
15% -41.6% 35% -32.7%
20% -47.4% 30% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -28% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$297 vs −$312 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$405
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses53 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$682
Open positions3
Markets (closed)117 / 120
History coverage19d
Avg bet$418
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Ivory vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage Ivory 53¢ 50¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-5%)
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs 4ikibamboni 50¢ 30¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-38%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Yakult Brothers 42¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $60 +$6 +11%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 17 $51 −$51 -99%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $5 +$5 +99%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $50 −$4 -7%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $515 −$509 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,543 −$2,519 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,497 +$1,050 +70%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,997 −$1,966 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1,812 −$1,789 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,052 +$768 +73%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $263 +$176 +67%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $102 −$84 -82%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $600 +$360 +60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,997 −$1,971 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $272 −$267 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $350 +$8 +2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $194 −$191 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $306 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $228 +$281 +123%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $351 +$120 +34%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,737 +$460 +26%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $205 −$100 -49%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $589 +$326 +55%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $94 −$92 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $404 +$196 +49%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $99 +$188 +190%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $444 +$261 +59%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $203 +$241 +118%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $234 −$231 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,423 +$811 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,996 +$1,521 +76%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,132 +$290 +26%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $95 −$93 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $697 +$530 +76%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $97 −$95 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $48 +$48 +101%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 10 $170 −$168 -99%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $101 +$69 +68%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $402 −$395 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $569 +$434 +76%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $510 +$61 +12%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $297 −$142 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Ivory vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast BUY Ivory 53¢ $36 16m
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY 4ikibamboni 50¢ $30 18m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $66 21m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 90¢ $60 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 42¢ $46 2h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY FlyQuest 53¢ $10 10h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag SELL Team Evictix 99¢ $10 10h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY FlyQuest 55¢ $41 10h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 49¢ $5 10h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL PlayTime 100¢ $46 10h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 2¢ $1 10h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 89¢ $41 10h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 22¢ $9 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $514 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $2,543 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $2,547 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $1,493 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 49¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 48¢ $1,991 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $1,808 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 5¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 99¢ $1,820 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 58¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 56¢ $1,050 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $439 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner SELL Game Master 7¢ $18 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 38¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.96 · official $63.45 · 268 history records