Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:39:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb36d…8484 crypto 476 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%248W / 228L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$44
14 days+$30
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -1.9% -11.2% 43% 43% +1.9%
≤30d 236 -4.7% -13.8% 49% 47% -9.2%
≤90d 476 -6.0% -14.9% 52% 42% -12.0%
all 476 -6.0% -14.9% 52% 42% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 42% -12.0%
10% -23.1% 21% -20.4%
15% -30.5% 10% -28.1%
20% -37.3% 4% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses248 / 228
Open positions0
Markets (closed)476 / 476
History coverage80d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 476 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$5 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$6 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $43 +$30 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1177 history records