Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:54:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B3 0xb36c…0e2f crypto 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 372d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$174 (+5%) realized +$218 · open −$44
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate39%29W / 46L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$300
7 days+$300
14 days+$300
30 days+$300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$108
other 36% +$6
sports 21% +$322
world 1% −$6
politics 0% −$5
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +139.1% +116.4% 36% 36% +104.8%
≤30d 11 +139.1% +116.4% 36% 36% +104.8%
≤90d 23 +61.3% +45.9% 30% 30% +42.3%
all 75 +26.8% +14.7% 39% 29% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.7% 29% -2.7%
10% +3.8% 27% -12.0%
15% -6.3% 23% -20.5%
20% -15.4% 20% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$19 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized+$218
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses29 / 46
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)75 / 80
History coverage372d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $205 +$5 (+2%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 40¢ $40 $6 −$34 (-84%)
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Yes 26¢ 14¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-48%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 15¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$106 +344%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Alexis Saelemaekers: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$5 -50%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$148 +1440%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 AND Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a Jun 14 $31 +$69 +224%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $51 +$88 +174%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $51 +$71 +140%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Luke Kennard: Points O/U 14.5 May 06 $30 +$28 +94%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 28.5 Apr 21 $30 −$30 -98%
LeBron James: Assists O/U 9.5 Apr 21 $30 −$30 -98%
Kevin Durant: Points O/U 24.5 Apr 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $40 −$17 -43%
Will AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw? Apr 11 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $50 +$200 +400%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $100 −$11 -11%
Will Hyperliquid be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jan 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jan 04 $40 +$47 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 04 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 02 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jan 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 02 $80 −$40 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 02 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 02 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 02 $76 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 02 $150 +$74 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 02 $90 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 02 $54 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 02 $77 +$33 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 02 $40 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 12? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Wimbledon: Fucsovics vs. Monfils Jan 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Yoon arrested before September? Jan 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Wimbledon: Sonego vs. Basilashvili Jan 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Wimbledon: Draper vs. Cilic Jan 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Another US military action against Iran before August? Jan 02 $3 −$3 -100%
FIFA Club World Cup: Flamengo vs. Bayern Munich (To Advance) Jan 02 $202 +$49 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jan 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on June 27? Jan 02 $55 −$5 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $41 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $136 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $20 4h
Alexis Saelemaekers: 1+ goals SELL Yes 10¢ $5 4h
Alexis Saelemaekers: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $10 4h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $15 4h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 98¢ $158 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 5h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 11h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 AND Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a SELL 96¢ $99 23h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 AND Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a BUY 29¢ $31 27h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 27h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY 15¢ $21 27h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Germany 95¢ $139 28h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 34¢ $51 30h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 30h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 30h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 27d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 40d
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 38¢ $20 40d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 41¢ $51 40d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 28.5 BUY Yes 46¢ $30 55d
LeBron James: Assists O/U 9.5 BUY Yes 47¢ $30 55d
Luke Kennard: Points O/U 14.5 BUY Yes 51¢ $30 55d
Kevin Durant: Points O/U 24.5 BUY Yes 39¢ $20 55d
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? BUY Yes 33¢ $30 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.25 · official $216.25 (match) · 273 history records