Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:33:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B3
0xb36b…7804
politics · 28 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$3,397 +133%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$354 · open +$380
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY politics specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$3,282
Realized+$354
Unrealized+$380
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses8 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions27
Markets (closed)36 / 28
Avg bet$91
Trades / day893.5
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 27 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$217
7 days+$354
14 days+$354
30 days+$354
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $324 $486 +$162 (+50%)
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $304 $456 +$152 (+50%)
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $292 $438 +$146 (+50%)
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $283 $425 +$142 (+50%)
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $281 $422 +$141 (+50%)
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $88 $132 +$44 (+50%)
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $87 $130 +$43 (+50%)
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $246 $123 −$123 (-50%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $80 $121 +$40 (+50%)
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $195 $98 −$98 (-50%)
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $59 $89 +$30 (+50%)
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $152 $76 −$76 (-50%)
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $142 $71 −$71 (-50%)
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $113 $57 −$57 (-50%)
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $67 $50 −$17 (-25%)
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $96 $48 −$48 (-50%)
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $56 $28 −$28 (-50%)
Will Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+100%)
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+71%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 51¢ 32¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 90¢ 28¢ $9 $3 −$6 (-69%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will Israel Adesanya be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+200%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian pre Jun 12 $33 −$16 -49%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 12 $4 −$3 -82%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$30 +17691%
Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Jun 12 $17 −$14 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Dimitar Glavchev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Claudia López win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidentia Jun 12 $17 +$3 +18%
Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presiden Jun 12 $42 −$17 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Delyan Peevski be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian preside Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Alba Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament ele Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Roy Barreras win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential Jun 12 $15 −$8 -49%
Will David Luna Sánchez win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 12 $4 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Assen Vassilev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mauricio Cárdenas win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian preside Jun 12 $35 −$18 -51%
Will Boyko Borissov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season Jun 12 $4 −$4 -87%
Will Daniel Quintero win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Jun 12 $46 −$39 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Nikolai Denkov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian pres Jun 12 $39 −$30 -78%
Will Reilly Opelka win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $2 +$6 +280%
Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $812 −$48 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $404 −$13 -3%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $11 +$153 +1336%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $7 +$112 +1640%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $5 +$118 +2331%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $8 +$144 +1792%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $8 +$137 +1674%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 53% −$17
politics 44% +$805
tech 3% +$40
world 0% +$147
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6m
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10m
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12m
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13m
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23m
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27m
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 36m
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 37m
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 38m
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 39m
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 47m
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 52m
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 52m
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 59m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+203.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +235.9% +203.9% 22% 22% +7.5%
≤30d 36 +235.9% +203.9% 22% 22% +7.5%
≤90d 36 +235.9% +203.9% 22% 22% +7.5%
all 36 +235.9% +203.9% 22% 22% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover893.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +203.9% 22% +7.5%
10% ← realistic here +174.8% 19% -2.8%
15% +148.2% 19% -12.2%
20% +123.9% 19% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,282.27 · official $3,292.27 (match) · 3500 history records