Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:20:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb36b…5d9c crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$10 (-7%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%11W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -14.7% -22.8% 61% 61% -26.7%
≤30d 18 -14.7% -22.8% 61% 61% -26.7%
≤90d 18 -14.7% -22.8% 61% 61% -26.7%
all 18 -14.7% -22.8% 61% 61% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.8% 61% -26.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.2% 39% -33.7%
15% -36.9% 28% -40.1%
20% -43.1% 17% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$22 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records