Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:11:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B3 0xb36a…f9d8 crypto 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$372 (-6%) realized −$260 · open −$112
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate73%53W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$24
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$749
other 42% +$478
sports 6% −$205
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -28.7% -35.5% 50% 50% -0.1%
≤30d 6 -22.0% -29.5% 50% 50% -4.3%
≤90d 8 -8.3% -17.0% 62% 50% -3.3%
all 73 -0.1% -9.6% 73% 33% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 33% -14.7%
10% -18.3% 23% -22.9%
15% -26.2% 21% -30.4%
20% -33.4% 14% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$63 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized−$260
Unrealized−$112
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses53 / 20
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage260d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 66¢ 34¢ $228 $116 −$112 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $158 +$72 +46%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $19 +$7 +39%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $9 +$8 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 18 $5 +$3 +65%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Nov 26 $38 +$1 +3%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Oct 29 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Napoli win on 2025-10-28? Oct 29 $30 +$17 +56%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26? Oct 28 $15 +$13 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Oct 25 $1 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Oct 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 20, 6AM ET Oct 20 $9 +$10 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Oct 20 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - October 20, 3AM ET Oct 20 $5 +$5 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 5AM ET Oct 20 $8 +$12 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Oct 20 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Oct 20 $5 +$5 +100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs PSG Talon (BO3) Oct 19 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO3) Oct 19 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Oct 16 $99 −$99 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 16, 4AM ET Oct 16 $99 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Oct 16 $98 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 12AM ET Oct 16 $98 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Oct 15 $117 −$117 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 8AM ET Oct 15 $116 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Oct 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Oct 15 $111 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 6AM ET Oct 15 $111 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Oct 15 $106 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 5AM ET Oct 15 $105 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Oct 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 4AM ET Oct 15 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Oct 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3AM ET Oct 14 $96 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Oct 14 $8 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 14, 2AM ET Oct 14 $96 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Oct 14 $79 +$16 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Oct 14 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Oct 14 $76 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Oct 14 $75 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Oct 14 $73 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Oct 14 $68 +$6 +9%
Will Slovakia win on 2025-10-13? Oct 14 $50 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Oct 13 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Oct 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 12AM ET Oct 13 $135 +$10 +8%
Solana Up or Down - October 12, 11PM ET Oct 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 66¢ $231 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $158 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $30 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $26 6d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $27 6d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 71¢ $19 6d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $17 7d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $9 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 33d
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL No 38¢ $20 206d
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL No 38¢ $19 206d
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 37¢ $38 207d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 59¢ $51 234d
Will Napoli win on 2025-10-28? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 235d
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 237d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 239d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $40 243d
Solana Up or Down - October 20, 6AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $20 243d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 243d
Solana Up or Down - October 20, 6AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $9 243d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 5AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $20 243d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 5AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $8 243d
Solana Up or Down - October 20, 3AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 243d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 243d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 244d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs PSG Talon (BO3) BUY PSG Talon 45¢ $4 244d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO3) SELL Movistar KOI 100¢ $10 244d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO3) BUY Movistar KOI 85¢ $8 244d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 247d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.93 · official $131.50 · 140 history records