trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +46.4% | +32.5% | 75% | 75% | +44.4% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +50.1% | +35.8% | 80% | 80% | +45.5% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +22.1% | +10.5% | 55% | 55% | +63.1% |
| all | 29 | +11.0% | +0.4% | 41% | 41% | +12.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +0.4% | 41% | +12.5% |
| 10% | -9.2% | 31% | +1.8% |
| 15% | -17.9% | 28% | -8.1% |
| 20% | -26.0% | 17% | -17.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | Yes | 89¢ | 88¢ | $89 | $88 | −$0 (-1%) |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | Yes | 14¢ | 8¢ | $100 | $54 | −$46 (-46%) |
| Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? | Yes | 10¢ | 10¢ | $50 | $48 | −$2 (-5%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 20¢ | $34 | $39 | +$5 (+16%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 14¢ | 10¢ | $40 | $27 | −$13 (-33%) |
| Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 25¢ | 20¢ | $25 | $20 | −$4 (-18%) |
| Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 27¢ | 50¢ | $8 | $15 | +$7 (+83%) |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 4¢ | $19 | $8 | −$11 (-56%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 5¢ | $9 | $5 | −$4 (-41%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 22 | $5 | −$1 | -18% |
| Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 22 | $18 | +$13 | +70% |
| Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 21 | $74 | +$26 | +36% |
| Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 19 | $51 | +$49 | +98% |
| Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 14 | $43 | +$28 | +65% |
| Will Putin visit China by May 31? | May 16 | $79 | +$19 | +24% |
| Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 09 | $37 | −$36 | -98% |
| US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? | May 08 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April? | Apr 26 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? | Apr 03 | $100 | +$362 | +362% |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Mar 25 | $104 | −$46 | -45% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Mar 24 | $99 | −$22 | -22% |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) | Mar 01 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of January? | Mar 01 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025? | Mar 01 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? | Mar 01 | $24 | −$24 | -100% |
| Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Feb 12 | $30 | +$14 | +48% |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? | Feb 01 | $7 | +$54 | +770% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jan 31 | $100 | +$13 | +13% |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | Jan 30 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? | Jan 30 | $29 | −$6 | -19% |
| US national Ethereum reserve before 2027? | Jan 17 | $22 | −$13 | -61% |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? | Jan 17 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? | Jan 17 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jan 11 | $63 | −$9 | -14% |
| Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jan 02 | $50 | +$6 | +11% |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? | Oct 24 | $129 | +$63 | +49% |
| Apple Vision Pro 2 released by December 31? | Oct 15 | $50 | +$9 | +17% |
| Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? | Oct 10 | $50 | −$8 | -15% |