Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:58:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B3 0xb368…4eca world 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$2
crypto 21% $0
other 8% −$1
politics 6% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.6% -11.9% 40% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 8 -1.8% -11.2% 25% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 8 -1.8% -11.2% 25% 0% -10.7%
all 19 -9.4% -18.1% 53% 5% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 5% -10.3%
10% -25.9% 0% -18.9%
15% -33.1% 0% -26.8%
20% -39.6% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage446d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $27 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$1 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $16 −$1 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $31 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $29 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Jun 25 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +16%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? May 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Evan Mobley win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Apr 05 $6 $0 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80000 on April 4? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 05 $24 $0 +1%
More Epstein files released in March? Mar 30 $1 $0 +6%
500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April? Mar 30 $24 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $27 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $5 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $3 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $19 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $27 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $11 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $10 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $7 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $17 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $10 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $13 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 97¢ $31 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 98¢ $31 8d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $23 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $5 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $29 9d
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? SELL No 100¢ $20 357d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $0 362d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? BUY No 99¢ $1 380d
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? BUY No 98¢ $20 394d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? BUY No 86¢ $2 396d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.85 · official $26.85 (match) · 49 history records