Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:01:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb368…9734 other 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 597d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,244 (-24%) realized −$2,248 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate22%28W / 97L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$424now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$78
14 days−$71
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$108
world 20% −$743
politics 14% −$1,232
sports 13% +$188
tech 4% −$195
crypto 3% −$25
culture 1% −$15
finance 1% −$100
economics 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-45.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -2.6% -11.9% 23% 23% -27.5%
≤30d 16 -12.7% -21.0% 25% 25% -22.0%
≤90d 62 -44.4% -49.7% 18% 15% -48.1%
all 125 -39.7% -45.5% 22% 19% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.5% 19% -32.7%
10% -50.7% 17% -39.1%
15% -55.5% 14% -45.0%
20% -59.8% 12% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -35% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$44 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$424
Realized−$2,248
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses28 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions11
Markets (closed)125 / 136
History coverage597d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 11¢ 59¢ $22 $117 +$95 (+427%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+0%)
Blue tsunami in 2026? No 50¢ 59¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 57¢ $59 $58 −$1 (-1%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-1%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 39¢ 12¢ $100 $32 −$68 (-68%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $17 $21 +$4 (+21%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-18%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-99%)
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $34 −$33 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $28 +$76 +276%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $25 +$80 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $23 +$82 +365%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $99 +$30 +30%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 18 $91 +$8 +9%
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $100B at market close on IPO day May 13 $24 −$23 -96%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 13 $80 +$35 +44%
Will the Green Party win the most council seat elections in the 2026 U May 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? May 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Apr 25 $24 −$23 -97%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 25 $29 −$29 -99%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Suns vs. Thunder Apr 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portland Trail Blazers advance to the Conference Semifinals in th Apr 25 $10 −$7 -75%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics Apr 25 $10 −$4 -40%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 25 $10 −$3 -29%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic Apr 25 $10 $0 +2%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 25 $10 +$10 +101%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 25 $10 +$9 +88%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $10 +$38 +379%
Kash Patel out by April 30? Apr 21 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Justin Bieber play "Where Are Ü Now" first at Coachella? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Justin Bieber play "What Do You Mean?" first at Coachella? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Justin Bieber play "Sorry" first at Coachella? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Apr 09 $21 −$21 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $11 +$60 +567%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Apr 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on January 5? Mar 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Abracadabra (Lady Gaga) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual Mar 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DTMF (Bad Bunny) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Mar 28 $15 −$15 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026? Mar 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will APT (Rosé and Bruno Mars) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annu Mar 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Mayhem (Lady Gaga) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMM Mar 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $45 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $60 2h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $66 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 25h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $27 25h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 25h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $34 25h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $28 38h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $25 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $25 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $25 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $25 4d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $23 4d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $41 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $23 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 4d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $11 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 11d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 11d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 11d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $99 37d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Jannik Sinner 91¢ $91 40d
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $100B at market close on IPO day BUY Yes 7¢ $24 43d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $115 43d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $80 44d
Will the Green Party win the most council seat elections in the 2026 U BUY Yes 2¢ $2 50d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 4¢ $4 51d
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $423.53 · official $423.53 (match) · 272 history records