Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:04:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B3 0xb365…1e78 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$113 (+8%) realized +$118 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate93%14W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$482now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$200
30 days+$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$4
sports 32% +$103
crypto 21% +$11
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +57.0% +42.1% 100% 67% +69.8%
≤90d 7 +11.0% +0.4% 86% 29% +4.4%
all 15 +5.4% -4.6% 93% 13% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 13% +1.9%
10% -13.8% 13% -7.9%
15% -22.1% 13% -16.8%
20% -29.7% 13% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$162 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$482
Realized+$118
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses14 / 1
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage173d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $487 $482 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $175 +$200 +114%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $115 +$65 +57%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? May 26 $12 $0 +0%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 22 $164 −$162 -98%
Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Apr 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 22 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 10? Apr 22 $256 +$11 +4%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k? Mar 14 $24 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in March 2026? Mar 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 02 $16 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$45 in January? Feb 02 $16 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in January? Feb 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Netflix dip to $0 in January? Feb 02 $27 $0 +0%
Kraken IPO in 2025? Jan 06 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $482.48 · official $482.48 (match) · 31 history records