Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:33:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb363…1d07 world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%17W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$8
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$8
other 15% −$2
politics 11% $0
crypto 7% +$2
culture 7% $0
economics 4% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -4.0% -13.2% 33% 0% -12.5%
≤30d 23 -2.1% -11.4% 26% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 23 -2.1% -11.4% 26% 0% -10.9%
all 45 -0.7% -10.1% 38% 2% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 2% -10.2%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses17 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage273d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $26 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $27 −$4 -14%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $32 −$1 -4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $9 −$1 -15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $30 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $31 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $66 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $32 −$2 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $23 $0 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $33 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $65 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 28 $15 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $10 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 31 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 31 $27 $0 +1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 07 $24 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31? Oct 07 $51 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 04 $3 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Oct 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $18 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 01 $10 +$2 +15%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Sep 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 29 $18 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Sep 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 26 $27 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $26 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $26 2h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 26h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 27h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 27h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 27h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 45¢ $23 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $27 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $13 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $13 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $27 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $27 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $28 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $2 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $16 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $10 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $28 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $9 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $21 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $30 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 72¢ $31 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $32 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $7 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 13¢ $9 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $17 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $13 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $26 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records