Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:29:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B3 0xb362…602b crypto 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 315d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$77 (+4%) realized +$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate77%33W / 10L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$19
other 4% +$24
economics 3% +$13
politics 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 2 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -7.9%
≤90d 37 +1.2% -8.4% 78% 57% -7.8%
all 43 +1.7% -8.0% 77% 56% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 56% -6.7%
10% -16.8% 30% -15.6%
15% -24.9% 16% -23.8%
20% -32.2% 14% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$28 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

315d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses33 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage315d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 22 $48 −$47 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 22 $40 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 22 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 20 $35 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 20 $22 +$14 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 20 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 20 $17 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 18 $43 +$24 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 17 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 17 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 17 $50 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 17 $50 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 17 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 16 $25 +$21 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 16 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 16 $50 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 16 $50 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 16 $50 +$28 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 16 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 16 $50 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 16 $50 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 16 $100 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 16 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 16 $50 +$13 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 16 $60 +$31 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 16 $56 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 16 $20 +$21 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 16 $25 +$4 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 17? Apr 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $7 $0 -3%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Oct 06 $63 +$22 +34%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $49 +$13 +26%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August? Aug 18 $20 −$12 -62%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Aug 18 $13 +$3 +20%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Aug 18 $25 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $48 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $47 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $40 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $41 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $35 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $22 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $21 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $17 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $50 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $67 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $43 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $50 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $53 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $56 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $69 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $50 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $60 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $50 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $55 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $45 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records