Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:38:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb360…13ab other 146 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,062 (+1%) realized +$1,062 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate16%23W / 122L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$1,273per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$313now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$16
14 days−$124
30 days−$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$1,719
politics 33% −$74
sports 15% −$594
culture 4% −$8
world 1% −$4
economics 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$3
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 -6.0% -15.0% 9% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 109 -13.3% -21.5% 7% 3% -10.3%
all 145 -4.0% -13.1% 16% 11% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 11% -9.0%
10% -21.4% 11% -17.7%
15% -29.0% 9% -25.7%
20% -36.0% 8% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,576) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$13 · ×8.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$313
Realized+$1,062
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses23 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)145 / 146
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,273
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $313 $313 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,632 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2,783 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,883 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $769 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $4,300 −$5 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,083 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $949 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,071 −$3 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $1,091 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $2,080 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $2,087 −$2 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $6,633 −$6 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,431 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,087 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,948 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,802 −$4 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $76 +$70 +93%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $281 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $437 +$2 +0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $2,853 −$3 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,453 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,704 −$2 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 25 $69 −$69 -100%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,083 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $991 −$1 -0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $2,239 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 22 $1,094 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $1,061 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,769 −$2 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,251 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,277 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $1,225 −$2 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $872 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,163 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 07 $1,125 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $831 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $4,122 −$5 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $3,147 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $2,003 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $1,058 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Apr 25 $1,156 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 25 $1,196 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $749 9m
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $750 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $630 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $631 3h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $563 42h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $564 46h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $765 2d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $766 2d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $766 2d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $767 2d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $768 3d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $769 3d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $771 3d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $772 4d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $313 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,082 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,083 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,001 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,002 8d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $948 8d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $949 8d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $967 8d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $969 9d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,090 9d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,091 9d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,090 9d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,091 10d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,041 10d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,042 10d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $874 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $313.09 · official $313.09 (match) · 474 history records