Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:03:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb35b…43c4 other 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$14 (+3%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate45%10W / 12L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$2
other 30% +$16
crypto 3% $0
politics 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.9% -10.3% 20% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 9 -2.3% -11.6% 22% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 9 -2.3% -11.6% 22% 0% -10.2%
all 22 +2.9% -6.9% 45% 5% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 5% -6.8%
10% -15.8% 5% -15.7%
15% -24.0% 5% -23.9%
20% -31.4% 5% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.81 per $1 lost it wins $4.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses10 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage465d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $93 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $35 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $44 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $47 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $43 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $8 −$1 -17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? May 05 $1 $0 -22%
Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $15 +$15 +95%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Greens be part of the next German government? Apr 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will another racer win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 22 $14 $0 -1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 21 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $46 18m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $46 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $25 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $1 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $21 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $46 13h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $6 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $29 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $1 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $14 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $22 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $13 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $29 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $44 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $48 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $47 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $9 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $9 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $19 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $2 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $2 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 10¢ $6 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 12¢ $8 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? BUY No 98¢ $1 357d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $32 357d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records