Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:25:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B3 0xb356…94a5 crypto 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$222 (+6%) realized +$234 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate62%18W / 11L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2,009now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$199
7 days+$199
14 days+$199
30 days+$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$190
crypto 1% +$7
sports 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -44.3% -49.6% 50% 25% +1.4%
≤30d 4 -44.3% -49.6% 50% 25% +1.4%
≤90d 29 +2.5% -7.3% 62% 55% +1.2%
all 29 +2.5% -7.3% 62% 55% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 55% +1.2%
10% -16.2% 45% -8.5%
15% -24.3% 34% -17.3%
20% -31.7% 28% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$2 · ×6.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.42 per $1 lost it wins $10.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$2,009
Realized+$234
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses18 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage55d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $2,021 $2,009 −$12 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $745 +$18 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $910 +$184 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 07 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 29 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 29 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +4%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 29 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 29 $2 −$1 -49%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 28 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 28 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 28 $1 +$3 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $534 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $747 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $748 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $763 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 83¢ $1,094 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $3 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $742 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $451 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $451 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 38d
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,009.11 · official $2,009.11 (match) · 72 history records