Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:38:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B3 0xb354…7d49 crypto 1243 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$236 (-1%) realized −$240 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate63%773W / 458L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day39.9pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$107
14 days+$117
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$108
crypto 39% −$557
other 2% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 +7.5% -2.8% 50% 47% -3.0%
≤30d 478 -3.2% -12.4% 58% 50% -10.8%
≤90d 1231 -5.4% -14.4% 63% 47% -11.8%
all 1231 -5.4% -14.4% 63% 47% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 47% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 33% -20.3%
15% -30.1% 24% -28.0%
20% -36.9% 17% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$240
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses773 / 458
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1231 / 1243
History coverage75d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day39.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 84¢ $17 $17 −$1 (-3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 59¢ 58¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+51%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 34¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+35%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 26¢ 24¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 +$30 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$18 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$13 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$12 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$19 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 +$28 +234%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $22 +$21 +95%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$11 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $13 +$35 +278%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$8 -59%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$60 +290%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 −$9 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $18 +$13 +71%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $18 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$53 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$21 -84%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$33 +167%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $14 +$4 +30%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$8 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY 61¢ $25 5m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $11 9m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $16 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) BUY 33¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Arge BUY 29¢ $26 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.34 · official $125.39 · 3500 history records